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Trends in Physician Demand

HealthLeaders magazine, May 13, 2014

Truven Health Analytics research shows that physician productivity among those in Generation X (ages 34–49 in 2014) and the Millennial Generation (ages 18–33) is significantly less than the average productivity of retiring Baby Boomer physicians (ages 50–68). Replacing a Baby Boomer internist will require 1.6 younger physicians, while replacing a Baby Boomer pediatrician will require 2.0 younger physicians. Physician demand planning calls for staffing based on productivity, and organizations can’t assume that productivity will be the same from one physician to another. For this study, six markets that have different characteristics were selected from across the United States, including a range of city populations: San Francisco (825,863) and Sacramento (457,516) in California, which has highly managed payer and provider systems; Boston (636,479) in Massachusetts, where the legislature approved PPACA-like programs in 2006; Austin (842,592) and San Antonio (1,382,951) in Texas, which chose to not implement Medicaid expansion under PPACA; and Chicago (2,714,856) in Illinois, which chose to implement Medi-caid expansion under PPACA.

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