After a detailed economic analysis to project the impact of consumer-directed health plans on a variety of healthcare stakeholders, Chicago-based consulting group DiamondCluster International Inc. has come up with a list of winners and losers. Guess where providers landed?
DiamondCluster’s economists say that through 2010, CDHP’s winners will be consumers, employers, custodians and health payment processors, but losers will be providers, payors, drug companies and the government. In the next five years, says the consultancy, employers and consumers combined stand to reap more than $170 billion in healthcare cost and tax savings, while custodians ($1.6 billion) and payment processors ($1.5 billion) will also be net gainers in revenue.
Meanwhile, payors stand to lose more than $100 billion in revenues as consumers move to less expensive consumer-directed plans, and providers risk losing up to $32 billion as pricing pressures result from patients shopping more carefully for care. Drug companies stand to lose up to $11 billion in revenue, while the government will lose up to $23 billion in revenue thanks to HSA contribution write-offs. —Philip Betbeze