'Alarming' Physician Shortages Lie Ahead

Joe Cantlupe, for HealthLeaders Media , November 14, 2013

While there may be disagreement over numbers, there's no question that there will be a need for care, especially among an aging population and rising numbers of the chronically ill. Coupled with a physician force whose numbers are dwindling, the problem is easy to see.

Much of the need for physicians, of course, depends on healthcare workforce projections, which "have been notoriously unreliable because they are often based upon idealized future delivery systems rather than current utilization trends," Grover and Niecko-Najjum write.

Physician Attrition
Meanwhile, physicians are growing dissatisfied with their work. One in three practicing physicians older than 55 is expected to retire in the next 10 to 15 years, Grover writes.

Many are not eager to continue practicing medicine. A survey published last year by The Physicians Foundation [PDF], attracted widespread attention when it disclosed that 60% of physicians "would retire today if given the opportunity."


See Also: 6 in 10 Physicians Would Quit Today


So at the top end of the age scale, physicians are leaving by attrition, and at the low end, younger physicians seeking better work-life balance seek to work fewer hours than their predecessors.

In upcoming years, the academic world will be working to enlist more physicians, but the political world is way behind, and that's the problem, Grover tells me. "It's kind of alarming," he says.

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8 comments on "'Alarming' Physician Shortages Lie Ahead"


Janet (1/18/2015 at 5:44 PM)
In another article written by Atul and Lidia, they said with only 4,000 physicians being trained annually...- I did the math.. with 91,5000 physician shortages by 2020, that would mean there needs to be 18,500 physicians trained in the U.S. annually for the next 5 years. That is a challenge that has to be turned into action!

savita (11/29/2013 at 9:41 PM)
oh really? Dr, Dave, you are yet to know millions of female medical work force who have been working on same terms as their male colleagues and yet caring for their family needs without compromising professional durties all over world. it was really unfortunate to come across a prejudiced sexist comment like this. you need to correct yourself.

Bill Schlesinger (11/16/2013 at 2:21 PM)
So when does The Cap Get Lifted On Residency Slots?

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