Collins says that 29% of people who would qualify for subsidized coverage saw an income change from 2011 to 2012 that dropped their income below 100% of the poverty level, meaning they would no longer qualify for subsidized coverage through the marketplaces. Another 12% of those earning between 133% and 249% of poverty in 2011 also experienced an income change that lowered their earnings to less than the poverty level in 2012.
In contrast, 30% of people with incomes below 100% of poverty had an income gain that would have made them eligible for subsidized coverage.
The study calls on states to accept the Medicaid expansion. In the likely event that they do not, at least in the near term, Collins says Congress could pass legislation that would allow those making less than 100% of the federal poverty level, who are not eligible for Medicaid, to be eligible for subsidized coverage through the state marketplaces.
Such legislation would be unlikely to clear the Republican-controlled U.S. House, which has voted 40 times to repeal the PPACA.